Bonus Wagering Calculator
A deposit-match bonus looks like free money until you read the wagering requirement. This calculator does the honest arithmetic for you: it takes your deposit, the match, the wagering multiple and your chosen game, then simulates thousands of attempts to clear it. The headline number is expected value — what the offer is worth, on average, in cold euro.
I built this because the marketing rarely tells you the part that matters: the higher the wagering and the lower the game's contribution, the more of that bonus quietly evaporates into the house edge before you ever reach a withdrawal. Run your offer below and you'll see whether it's genuinely good value, a coin-flip, or a polite way of taking your deposit for a long spin.
Three figures tell the story. Expected value (EV) is the average result across every simulated run — positive means the offer is worth claiming, negative means you'd expect to be down by the time the wagering is met. The chance of clearing is the share of simulated attempts that reached the wagering target with money still on the table; an EV can be modestly positive even when most individual runs fail, because the rare big run carries the average. The range of outcomes shows a good run, a middling run and a bad run side by side — that spread is the truth the average hides. Read all three together, never the EV alone.
Why wagering requirements decide everything
A wagering requirement is the total turnover you must bet before bonus funds — and any winnings from them — become withdrawable. A €100 bonus at 35x wagering means €3,500 must pass through the games. The crucial question is whether the multiple applies to the bonus only or to your deposit plus bonus; the latter roughly doubles the turnover and is far harder to clear.
Every euro of that turnover meets the game's house edge. On a slot returning 96%, each €1 wagered costs about 4c on average. Push €3,500 through it and the expected friction is roughly €140 — already more than the €100 bonus. That single calculation explains why so many generous-looking offers carry a negative expected value, and why the wagering multiple matters more than the headline match percentage.
Game contribution and the max cashout trap
Not every game clears wagering at the same rate. Slots usually count 100%, but table games like roulette and blackjack often contribute 10% or less — meaning €1 bet only chips €0.10 off your requirement, so you turn over far more to finish. The calculator lets you set this contribution, and it changes the result dramatically: a low-edge game with low contribution can be worse value than a higher-edge slot that counts in full.
The second hidden lever is the maximum cashout, common on no-deposit and free-spin bonuses, which caps what you can withdraw regardless of how well the run goes. A €5 free chip with a €50 cap can never return more than €50, no matter how the simulation spikes. When you set a max cashout, watch the good-run outcome stop dead at the ceiling — that flattening is exactly how the operator manages its risk, and it pulls the expected value down with it.
How games count toward wagering
Not every game clears a bonus at the same rate — these are typical contribution rates, but always check the specific offer's terms.
| Game type | Counts toward wagering |
|---|---|
| Slots | 100% |
| Roulette | 10% |
| Blackjack | 10% |
| Baccarat | 10% |
| Video poker | 10% |
| Live casino | 10% |
Bonus types explained
- Cashable: Both the bonus and any winnings can be withdrawn once you've met the wagering requirement.
- Sticky: The bonus itself is never withdrawable — you can cash out winnings made with it, but the bonus amount is removed when you withdraw.
- Free spins: A set number of spins on a chosen slot; winnings usually convert to bonus funds with their own wagering and often a max cashout.
- Cashback: A percentage of your losses returned over a period, sometimes as cash with no wagering, sometimes as a bonus that does carry wagering.
Worked example: a €100 match at 35x
Say a casino offers a 100% match up to €100, you deposit €100 and receive a €100 bonus. Wagering is 35x the bonus, so you must turn over €3,500. You play a slot with 96% RTP that contributes 100%, betting €1 a spin.
Each €1 spin costs 4c in expected house edge, so €3,500 of turnover carries an expected cost of about €140. Against a €100 bonus, the maths starts roughly €40 underwater before variance is even considered. The simulation bears this out: the middle outcome lands around −€38, the chance of clearing with a profit sits near 35–40%, and the good-run outcome reaches €180 or so while the bad run empties the balance. The honest verdict — a fun bonus to play through, but not one to claim expecting profit. Drop the wagering to 20x and rerun it; you'll watch the EV climb toward break-even.
Glossary
RTP
Return to player — the percentage of total stakes a game is designed to pay back over the long run, e.g. 96% means €96 returned per €100 staked on average.
House edge
The casino's built-in advantage, equal to 100% minus the RTP; it's the average share of every euro staked that the operator keeps over time.
Volatility
How a game pays out — low volatility means small, frequent wins, while high volatility means rare but larger wins and wider swings.
Wagering requirement
The total turnover you must bet before bonus funds and their winnings become withdrawable, written as a multiple such as 35x.
Expected value (EV)
The average outcome of a bet or bonus across many simulated attempts, expressed in euro — positive means good value, negative means an expected loss.
FAQ
Does a positive expected value mean I'll make money?
No. EV is an average across thousands of simulated runs, and most of those runs still end below zero — the average is propped up by occasional big wins. Any single attempt of yours is far more likely to land near the middle or bad-run outcome. Treat a positive EV as 'good value to play', not 'expect a profit'.
Why does the same bonus look worse on roulette than on slots?
Because of game contribution. If roulette counts only 10% toward wagering, you have to turn over ten times as much to finish — and every one of those extra euro meets the house edge. A low contribution almost always outweighs roulette's lower edge, so slots that count 100% usually clear more efficiently.
Should wagering apply to the bonus or to deposit plus bonus?
Always check, because it roughly doubles the turnover. 35x on a €100 bonus is €3,500; 35x on deposit-plus-bonus (€200) is €7,000. The calculator has a toggle for this — flip it and you'll see the chance of clearing fall sharply. 'Deposit + bonus' wagering is a clear signal to read the terms closely before claiming.